What is the price trend for wholesale high-quality seamless steel pipes?

The price trend of wholesale high-quality seamless steel pipes needs to be comprehensively evaluated based on its quality standards, market supply and demand, and industry chain costs. The high-quality seamless steel pipes here usually refer to products that meet the requirements of national standards GB/T8162 (for structural use), GB/T8163 (for transportation use) or higher, with characteristics such as small wall thickness tolerance, mechanical performance compliance, and non-destructive testing qualification. They are mostly used in fields such as mechanical manufacturing, petrochemicals, and new energy equipment, and are different from ordinary welded pipes or non-standard seamless pipes.

From the market situation in the past year, the wholesale price of high-quality seamless steel pipes has shown a trend of "first rising, then stabilizing, and slightly falling". From the second half of last year to the second quarter of this year, due to the phased increase in prices of raw materials such as steel billets and iron ore, coupled with the demand for downstream infrastructure and manufacturing recovery, the national average wholesale price of mainstream specification 20 hot-rolled high-quality seamless pipes (φ 108mm5mm) has risen from 5400-5600 yuan/ton last year to 6100-6300 yuan/ton in the second quarter of this year; After entering the third quarter of this year, with the decline in raw material prices and the slowdown in traditional real estate demand, prices have fallen back to the range of 5900-6100 yuan/ton, with an overall fluctuation range controlled within 10%, which is more rational than the sharp rise and fall in 2021.

There are four core factors that support the stability of high-quality pipe prices: firstly, the high proportion of raw material costs. In the production cost of high-quality seamless pipes, raw materials (steel billets, alloy waste) account for more than 70%. For every 100 yuan/ton change in steel billet prices, pipe prices usually fluctuate by 80-90 yuan/ton synchronously, and fluctuations in the Platts index of iron ore will also be directly transmitted to terminal prices; The second is the process premium. The small-sized seamless pipes produced by cold drawing process have higher precision and better surface quality, and the wholesale price is 300-500 yuan/ton higher than that of hot-rolled pipes of the same specification; Industrial grade high-quality pipes that require non-destructive testing are about 200 yuan more expensive than ordinary qualified pipes; The third is the support of demand structure, with strong demand for high-quality pipes in downstream high-end equipment, new energy and other fields. The annual growth rate of high-quality pipe demand remains at 3% -5%, filling the gap in traditional real estate demand and avoiding a sharp drop in prices; Fourthly, there is a regional price difference. The wholesale prices in core production areas where steel mills are concentrated in North and East China are relatively low, while remote areas such as South China and Northwest China have prices 100-200 yuan/ton higher than those in core production areas due to transportation costs.

The price difference of high-quality pipes of different materials and categories is also significant: among the 20 ordinary high-quality pipes, the hot-rolled large specification (diameter 219mm6mm) is about 5900 yuan/ton, and the cold drawn small specification (diameter 25mm2.5mm) is about 6250 yuan/ton; 40Cr seamless pipe made of alloy material, priced 800-1000 yuan/ton higher than 20 pipes of the same specification; GB5310 standard pipes used for high-pressure boilers have stricter performance requirements for high temperature and high pressure resistance, with wholesale prices ranging from 7200-7500 yuan/ton, belonging to the category of high-end and high-quality pipes.

In the near future, from the fourth quarter of 2024 to 2025, raw material prices are expected to remain stable with a slight decrease, and the demand for high-quality pipes in downstream fields such as new energy and nuclear power will continue to grow. Therefore, wholesale prices are likely to remain in the range of 5800-7500 yuan/ton, and the price difference between different categories is relatively stable. The overall market is mainly stable and will not experience significant fluctuations.